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A probabilistic computation framework to estimate the dawn phenomenon in type 2 diabetes using continuous glucose monitoring
In type 2 diabetes (T2D), the dawn phenomenon is an overnight glucose rise recognized to contribute to overall glycemia and is a potential target for therapeutic intervention. Existing CGM-based approaches do not account for sensor error, which can mask the true extent of the dawn phenomenon. To address this challenge, we developed a probabilistic framework that incorporates sensor error to assign a probability to the occurrence of dawn phenomenon. In contrast, the current approaches label glucose fluctuations as dawn phenomena as a binary yes/no. We compared the proposed probabilistic model with a standard binary model on CGM data from 173 participants (71% female, 87% Hispanic/Latino, 54 ± 12 years, with either a diagnosis of T2D for six months or with an elevated risk of T2D) stratified by HbA1c levels into normal but at risk for T2D, with pre-T2D, or with non-insulin-treated T2D. The probabilistic model revealed a higher dawn phenomenon frequency in T2D [49% (95% CI 37� ��63%)] compared to pre-T2D [36% (95% CI 31–48%), p = 0.01] and at-risk participants [34% (95% CI 27–39%), p < 0.0001]. While these trends were also found using the binary approach, the probabilistic model identified significantly greater dawn phenomenon frequency than the traditional binary model across all three HbA1c sub-groups (p < 0.0001), indicating its potential to detect the dawn phenomenon earlier across diabetes risk categories. © The Author(s) 2024.
Authors : Barua S.; Glantz N.; Larez A.; Bevier W.; Sabharwal A.; Kerr D.
Source : Nature Research
Article Information
| Year | 2024 |
| Type | Article |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-024-52461-1 |
| ISSN | 20452322 |
| Volume | 14 |
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