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Development and Validation of an Electronic Health Record–Based Risk Assessment Tool for Hypoglycemia in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Background: The recent availability of high-quality data from clinical trials, together with machine learning (ML) techniques, presents exciting opportunities for developing prediction models for clinical outcomes.
Methods: As a proof-of-concept, we translated a hypoglycemia risk model derived from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study into the HypoHazardScore, a risk assessment tool applicable to electronic health record (EHR) data. To assess its performance, we conducted a 16-week clinical study at the University of Minnesota where participants (N = 40) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) had hypoglycemia assessed prospectively by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).
Results: The HypoHazardScore combines 16 risk factors commonly found within the EHR. The HypoHazardScore successfully predicted (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.723) whether participants experienced least one CGM-assessed hypoglycemic event (glucose <54 mg/dL for ≥15 minutes from two CGMs) while significantly correlating with frequency of CGM-assessed hypoglycemic events (r = 0.38) and percent time experiencing CGM-assessed hypoglycemia (r = 0.39). Compared to participants with a low HypoHazardScore (N = 19, score <4, median score of 4), participants with a high HypoHazardScore (N = 21, score ≥4) had more frequent CGM-assessed hypoglycemic events (high: 1.6 ± 2.2 events/week; low: 0.3 ± 0.5 events/week) and experienced more CGM-assessed hypoglycemia (high: 1.4% ± 2.0%; low: 0.2% ± 0.4% time) during the 16-week follow-up. Conclusions: We demonstrated that a hypoglycemia risk model can be successfully adapted from the ACCORD data to the EHR, with validation by a prospective study using CGM-assessed hypoglycemia. The HypoHazardScore represents a significant advancement toward implementing an EHR-based decision support system that can help reduce hypoglycemia in patients with T2DM. � � 2023 Diabetes Technology Society.
Authors : Ma S.; Alvear A.; Schreiner P.J.; Seaquist E.R.; Kirsh T.; Chow L.S.
Source : SAGE Publications Inc.
Article Information
| Year | 2025 |
| Type | Article |
| DOI | 10.1177/19322968231184497 |
| ISSN | 19322968 |
| Volume | 19 |
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